Hanoi (VNA) – Despite the complexity of thefourth COVID-19 wave, Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast to exceed 6.5 percentthis year on the back of surging industrial production and global economicrecovery, according to Assoc. Prof. and PhD Dinh Trong Thinh, a senioreconomist from the Academy of Finance.

Given the economy is growing well in the first half of2021, it is likely to expand over 7 percent in the remaining months, settingthe scene for the country to achieve an overall GDP growth of at least 6.5percent this year, Thinh told the Lao Dong (Labour) newspaper.

The coronavirus is gradually brought under control, he said,plus domestic production has been experiencing positive growth, withmanufacturing and processing picking up at a current rate of 10 percent. Thesector may rise by 17 – 18 percent during the final months of 2021, he added.

Data shows that industrial production index in the firstfive months of the year advanced 9.9 percent year-on-year, with manufacturingand processing up 12.6 percent. Total retail sales of goods and services hiked7.6 percent year-on-year.

Thinh went on to say that the US, Chinese and EUeconomies are bouncing back, and increases in global credit demand will providea good opportunity for Vietnam’s exports. The US’s economic growth remainspositive at present and Vietnam’s shipments to the US is growing strong, headded.

A recent report by RongViet Securities Corporation (VDSC)forecast that the country’s GDP will grow by 7.2 percent in the second quarterof 2021 and 6.5 percent for the year as a whole.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) Country Director for VietnamAndrew Jeffries said Vietnam is capable of achieving the twin goals of curbingthe pandemic and sustaining economic growth this year. The country’s success incontaining the virus has strengthened foreign investors’ confidence in itseconomy, he added.

It is important for Vietnam to boost growth and easy waysfor small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to grow at the same time,thereby creating a solid foundation for a future private sector-led economy,Jeffries remarked.

According to the latest economic outlook report fromOxford Economics (OE), commissioned by the Institute of Chartered Accountantsin England and Wales (ICAEW), despite the recent resurgence in COVID-19,Vietnam’s growth outlook remains optimistic and the economy is expected toreturn to pre-pandemic levels by the second half of 2021.

The country’s GDP is forecast to grow at 7.6 percent in2021, among the highest rates in the region, the report said, noting that Vietnamwas one of the few economies in the world to grow in 2020 due to its success incontaining the pandemic.

“This early success enabled the economy to benefit fromthe surge in global trade activity and enjoy strong foreign direct investmentflows that boosted export-oriented and manufacturing industries,” according tothe report.

It said together with Singapore, Vietnam is expected tocontinue leading the region in recovery. “Despite a resurgence of COVID-19cases in Vietnam, which has affected its manufacturing sector and exportindustries, its economy is predicted to rebound swiftly once restrictions arelifted,” the report read.

Economist Thinh emphasized that the most important thingat present is that Vietnam must give priority to giving COVID-19 vaccine toworkers and preventing the virus from spreading inside companies and industrialparks.

Accelerating COVID-19 vaccine inoculation and keeping thecoronavirus at bay remain key factors to sustain growth because with theCOVID-19 resurging, declining incomes and economic conditions will havelong-term impact on consumers’ spending behaviour and lifestyle, he said./.