HCM City (VNS/VNA) - Vietnam could have a shortfall of 500,000 tonnes of pork, ornearly 20 percent of demand, in the period until the Lunar New Year in early2020 due to the effect of African swine flu (ASF), according to global researchfirm Ipsos Business Consulting.

In itsassessment on Vietnam’s swine market supply and demand from July to early 2020,the company said though demand was down since consumers had sometimes switchedto other foods, the decrease in supply was much higher and so supply would notmeet demand.

Thedisease had had significant consequences. As of June 24, ASF had broken out in60 of the country’s 63 provinces and cities, and more than 2.6 million pigs hadto be culled, severely affecting the pork demand-supply balance.

Thenumber of sows had decreased by 30 percent from a year ago.

This wasan opportunity for the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to outlinelivestock plans while controlling environmental issues and minimising risks ifdiseases occurred in future.

It couldalso create a mechanism to closely monitor and control the pig industry.

TheChinese experience showed it would take one to two years to restructure pigfarming, and Vietnam could learn from it to avoid unfortunate consequences.

The habitof consuming hot meat made chilled meat unpopular, and the hot meat supplychain was increasingly showing weaknesses.

Thefailure to inventory meat products was causing problems during a crisis, andauthorities needed to create a cold supply chain to cope with the crisis andopen up export opportunities.

Consumerconcerns about the safety of locally produced pork had boosted demand forimported pork.

Porkimports from the US, Canada, Spain, Germany, Poland, and France had skyrocketedin the last four months.

Porkprices would recover and increase in the future due to a supply shortage sincemost animal husbandry establishments were still afraid of ASF and did not darereplenish their sow herd.

Theimpact of ASF had increased demand for other meats such as chicken and beef.

Withconsumers becoming cautious about pork, brand-name products with clear origins,guaranteed quality and safety were in increasing demand.

This wasa factor in businesses in the pork supply chain investing heavily in brandingand establishing reliable sales channels to create trust in consumers.

“Althoughaccounting for less than 5 percent of Vietnam's total pork consumption in 2018,the proportion of branded pork products has achieved remarkable growth in fiveyears.”

Thebranded pork market was still small but showed extreme promise, persuading key playersto quickly step in.-VNS/VNA