Workers process oysters for export at the factory of the Gallant Ocean company in Khanh Hoa province (Photo: VNA) Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam’s GDP growth rate of 3.82 percent inthe first quarter of 2020, a record low since 2011, is still a miracle amidst aglobal economic recession, an official has said.
In an interview with Dau tu (Vietnam InvestmentReview) newspaper, Duong Manh Hung, Director of the System of National AccountsDepartment under the General Statistics Office (GSO), said the COVID-19outbreak has been causing considerable and unprecedented impacts on economicactivities, travel and lives among people around the world. As an open countrywith an integrated economy, Vietnam has also been under great pressure.
Aside from the pandemic, the country has alsobeen affected by adverse weather conditions, along with early and serioussaltwater intrusion, which have strongly impacted crops. Meanwhile, animalfarming still faces African swine fever which is not yet under full control andavian influenza which has appeared in many localities, Hung said.
He added the increased fines for drink drivingsince the start of the year have also affected alcoholic beverage producers, aswell as catering and entertainment services.
Facing such unprecedented difficulties, theeconomy grew by only 3.82 percent in Q1, the slowest Q1 growth pace since 2011.This rate is also much lower than the 6.52 – 6.77 percent originally forecast.
However, global economic expansion has slowed,and many big economies have grown at zero percent or even shrunk, so Vietnam’sgrowth rate of 3.82 percent could be considered a miracle, Hung said.
Pointing out the industries that have helped theVietnamese economy sustain growth, the official said some service sectors havemaintained stable growth like finance – banking, insurance, information andcommunications, health care, and social assistance. Notably, finance, bankingand insurance services increased 7.19 percent, contributing 0.33 percentagepoints to the overall growth.
For the second quarter, even if the COVID-19 pandemiccontinues, these service sectors will continue to post impressive growth and remainthe drivers of the economy, he said.
The GSO predicted that if the pandemic wassuccessfully controlled in Q2, this year’s GDP could grow by 5.32 percent, whilethe rate could stand at 5.05 percent if it lingered on to Q3, he noted, addingthat the office hasn’t considered the worst scenario that COVID-19 will remaina problem until Q4.
Hung stressed that it will be extremelydifficult to achieve the growth target of 6.8 percent for 2020 amidst thepandemic, animal diseases, drought and saltwater intrusion.
To do so, even if the coronavirus outbreak iscontained in Q2, the Vietnamese economy must rise by 8.57 percent and 9.23percent in the next two quarters – the highest in many years. So this year’starget is most likely unachievable, according to the GSO official.
It would still be a miracle if the country couldrecord GDP growth of 5 percent this year, he added./.
VNA
