Hanoi (VNA) ꦉ– Right from first months of 2025, Vietnam’s banking system has shown rosy signs of credit growth, with an increase of 1.98% compared to the end of 2024, signalling a strong start to the year.

Credit capital is flowing effectively, particularly in key sectors such as manufacturing, business, real estate, and consumer spending, all of which contribute to supporting the economic recovery.

Growing loan demand

Pham Tien Dung, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), said that credit growth in early 2025 showed positive signs compared to the same period in 2024. As of March 20, outstanding credit reached 15.93 quadrillion VND (613.1 billion USD), up 1.98% compared to the end of 2024, a 17.6% increase year-on-year, compared to the 0.2% decline in 2024. Đặc biệt, các gói tín dụng ưu đãi và chính sách nới lỏng tiền tệ từ Ngân hàng Nhà nước tiếp tục phát huy tác dụng, giúp các ngân hàng thương mại mở rộng cho vay với lãi suất hợp lý hơn. The robust credit growth so early in the year reflects the gradually recovering demand for loans from businesses and individuals. Particularly, preferential credit packages and easing monetary policies by the SBV are continuing to prove effective, allowing commercial banks to expand lending at more reasonable interest rates. In the first two months of this year, the central bank issued 10 guiding documents for credit institutions, encouraging solutions to boost credit growth, simplify procedures, and apply digital transformation in credit processes. Credit institutions were also urged to strictly follow Government and central bank guidelines on stabilising interest rates and reducing lending rates. From the perspective of commercial banks, Le Duy Hai, Deputy General Director of VietinBank, said that the bank has supported business with digital transformation. VietinBank invested around 5 trillion VND in technology in late 2023 and early 2024 to improve operational efficiency and better meet customer needs, he said. VietinBank also proposed several recommendations, including adjusting risk ratios for green credit and improving security in online transactions, he added. Digital transformation not only enhances banking operations but also makes it easier for customers to access financial services.

Nguyen Van Thanh, Director of MB Thai Binh, discussed measures to support small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), noting that helping SMEs is crucial for boosting local economic growth. MB Bank has reduced lending rates to help businesses access capital for production and operations. The bank also provided preferential credit packages for companies in the cotton yarn sector, helping them expand market share and strengthen competitiveness.

Credit growth expected to accelerate

Given the trajectory, many experts forecast that credit growth will continue to accelerate in the coming quarters. The SBV targets an overall credit growth rate of 16% for 2025 while maintaining tight control over credit quality to minimise bad debt risks. The driving force behind credit growth in 2025 is the strong recovery of the economy. Analysts from MB Securities (MBS) believe that credit activity in 2025 will be boosted by factors such as the recovery of Vietnam’s production and trade activities, driven by rising domestic and foreign demand. This will enable the SBV to maintain its accommodative monetary policy in 2025.

Another supportive factor is the high public investment disbursement rate. MBS expects that the high disbursement rate of public investment in 2025 will create jobs and stimulate demand for credit, aligning with the goal of economic recovery and the implementation of major infrastructure projects in Vietnam from 2021 to 2025. For these reasons, analysts expect banks to achieve higher credit growth in 2025. According to experts, real estate credit has shown signs of revival since the beginning of the year, as the market regains confidence and projects are being resumed. This trend will continue to positively influence credit growth throughout 2025. Experts also note that the SBV’s loosening of monetary policy, interest rate cuts, and policies aimed at easing difficulties for real estate businesses have helped unleash the flow of capital. However, banks remain cautious in managing credit risk within the real estate sector to avoid increasing bad debts. Nguyen Quoc Hung, General Secretary of the Vietnam Banking Association, stated that banks can only accelerate lending if credit demand continues to grow. In 2024, banks struggled to find borrowers. Looking ahead to 2025, hopes are pinned on an economic rebound that could spur borrowing needs. In that scenario, the credit growth target of 15–20% would no longer pose a challenge, but rather present an opportunity for the banking sector. The strong credit growth at the start of 2025 is an optimistic sign for Vietnam’s economy in the year ahead. With flexible monetary policies, a recovery in key sectors, and renewed confidence from businesses, the flow of bank credit is expected to continue, creating momentum for sustained economic growth in the months to come./.