An HDBank transaction office in HCM City. VNDirect estimates HDBank’s earnings growth to be 16 and 20 per cent in 2023 and 2024. (Photo courtesy of the bank) Securities firm VNDirect said the State Bank of Vietnam hasincreased policy rates by 200 basis points and this rate hike would inevitablyput pressure on banks’ net interest margin this year as the cost of funds risesand they are unlikely to pass on the entire burden to lending rates.
Meanwhile, the stagnant property market and sluggish recovery inthe corporate bond market will stress asset quality and liquidity.
All in all, the tightening of monetary policy and macrouncertainties are expected to affect the outlook for the sector in 2023.
In this context, VNDirect estimates HDBank’s earnings growth to be16-20% in financial year of 2023 and 2024 compared to a compounded annualgrowth rate (CAGR) in FY2019-2021 of 30%.
This figure is higher than the industry forecast (10.4%) as HDBankis likely to get a higher credit growth quota than other banks. In the event,its credit growth will top 20% in 2023.
Over the long term VNDirect remains upbeat about the outlook forHDBank as it adopts a lending model focused on the high demand in rural areas.
Meanwhile, its strong insurance operations can support its feeincome growth. Along with good asset quality, the bank also posted a goodreturn rate of 23% compared to the 20% average for the industry in 2020-2022.
VNDirect expects VIB’s credit growth to slow down to 10-15% overthe next two financial years.
In the current higher interest rate environment and with theongoing liquidity constraints, VIB’s earnings growth will soften to 15-18%across FY2023-2024F (CAGR for FY2019-2021 of 40%).
However, in the long run analysts still like VIB for its strongposition in Vietnam’s retail banking arena.
Similarly, VNDirect also predicts that in 2023-2024 VietinBank(HSX:CTG) will achieve credit growth of about 10%, 1-2 percentage points lowerthan the expectation for the industry as a whole.
VietinBank's net profit is expected to grow by 10.2% in 2023 and18% in 2024, with return on equity being 15.5-16%.
MB Securities forecasts VietinBank's consolidated pre-tax profitin 2023 to grow by 13.8 % to 983.64 million USD, almost the same as theprevious year's rate.
VNDirect also has a conservative prediction for Techcombank(HSX:TCB) in FY2023-2024 due to industry obstacles and close oversight of thebond and real estate markets.
Techcombank's credit is expected to grow at 10% in 2023 (CAGRFY2019-2021 of 25%).
The bank will have to increase provisioning to prevent bad debtrisks.
All in all, VNDirect expects Techcombank's net profit to grow at12-14% for the next two years.
With regard to Vietcombank (HSX:VCB), MBS forecasts totaloperating income in 2022 and 2023 to rise to nearly 2.67 billion USD and 2.97billion USD, up 10.8% and 11% respectively.
Pre-tax profit for 2022 is expected to reach 1.43 billion USD andcould hit 1.75 billion USD in FY 2022-2023, up 22.7% and 22.2%.
MBS projects ACB's pre-tax profit to top 722.32 million USD in2022, up 41.7% from the previous year. However, this figure could decelerate to8.6% in 2023 to 782.24 million USD./.
VNA
