Hanoi (VNA) – The goal of keeping inflation under 4.5% this year will be totally feasible, as the rate may range between 2.5-3.5%,experts said at a seminar held in Hanoi on July 4.

Vice Director of the Institute of Economics – Finance underthe Academy of Finance Nguyen Duc Do analysed that factors like money supply,interest rates and aggregate demand did not only cause inflation to drop sharplyin the first six months of 2023, but also restrained the CPI rise in thelast six months. Over the past one year, the CPI has only increased 0.17% per monthon average, he noted.

Do predicted that if the rate continues to be maintained inthe rest of the year, the inflation rate in 2023 will be at 2.5%, which means thetarget of 4.5% for this year will be surely reached.

Economist Vu Vinh Phu said that the CPI of this year will not exceed3.8-4%, helping the country to stabilise the macro-economy and rein in the inflation.

According to the Price Management Department under the Ministry of Finance, theworld's economic situation in the rest of the year has yet to show positivesignals due to the escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict. Vietnam is also experiencing slow economic growth and decline in exports due to falling demands ofimporters.

In the domestic market, the department highlighted a number of factors posingpressures on prices such as a 20% rise in basic salary from July 1, and an increase in commodity prices.

However, it pointed out that petrol prices are forecast to continue to fall orremain stable, while the supply of food and goods in the market has beenabundant, and the global inflation may drop, helping ease the pressure on Vietnam.

Vice Director of the Price Management Department Pham Van Binh held that with the CPI growthrate as recorded in the first six months of 2023, there is a high hope to controlinflation this year, enabling the flexible adjustments of the prices of somestate-managed goods.

But the impact of the price adjustment of state-managedgoods on the CPI in 2023 depends on the time of promulgation of legal documents onprice adjustment of commodities by ministries and sectors. In addition, thefact that the core inflation is at a much higher level than general inflationindicates long-term high inflation risks, he said.

In the last months of the year, the department will continueto coordinate with ministries and local authorities to implement drasticmeasures on price management in a cautious and flexible manner, while givingadvice to the Prime Minister and the Steering Committee for Price Management.

The department said that the CPI in the first half of this year rose3.29% over the same period last year, which was lower than that in the sametime of 2014, 2017 and 2020, but higher than the remaining years in the 2014-2023 period.Meanwhile, the core inflation rose 4.74%, the highest level in the firsthalf of a year in the 2014-2023 period./.