Vietnamese economy forecast to expand at 5.5 % in Q1
The Vietnamese economy is forecast to expand at 5.5% in the first quarter of the year as manufacturing and trade regain momentum, according to the United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB).
Cashew nut processing for export. The manufacturing sector and international trade are showing signs of recovery, which is driving economic growth this year. (Photo: VNA)
Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - The Vietnamese economy isforecast to expand at 5.5% in the first quarter of the year as manufacturingand trade regain momentum, according to the United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB).
Suan Teck Kin, Head of UOB’s Research, Executive Director,Global Economics and Markets Research, was quoted by vneconomy.vn as saying that the manufacturingsector and international trade are showing signs of recovery. “We expect thispace to be sustained, especially in the second half of 2024, as the recovery inthe semiconductor industry is firmer and global central banks are starting tooperate more appropriate interest rate policies.
The drops in industrial production and export in February werebecause Tet holidays fell in the early days of the month. Production andbusiness are returning to normal operation.
In the first two months, export totalled 58 billion USD, up 17.6%against the same period last year. Import was up 17.7% to reach 54.4 billion USD.
Industrial production grew by 5.7%, very positive, while the sameperiod of last year saw a drop of 2.2%. Notably, the electronic components roseby 10.1%, compared to 0.7% a year ago.
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index remains above the50.0 no change mark with both output and new orders up for the second monthstraight.
UOB forecast the Vietnamese economy would expand at 6% in 2024,meeting the target set at 6-6.5%. Inflation is projected at 3.8%.
Regarding interest rate polices, UOB said that after a period ofcontinuous rate cuts in 2023 with the economic recovery, the possibility offurther interest rate cuts has decreased. It is likely that the State Bank ofVietnam will keep the refinancing rate at the current level of 4.5%./.
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Cashew nut processing for export. The manufacturing sector and international trade are showing signs of recovery, which is driving economic growth this year. (Photo: VNA) 
