Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - As tensions between the US and countries like China, Canada and Mexico escalate with tariff retaliations, Vietnam is poised to benefit from the shifting global supply chain, experts say. With the US imposing additional tariffs of 10% on Chinese imports and China retaliating in kind, along with a proposed 10–20% import tax on all countries, global trade dynamics are being reshaped. This presents opportunities for certain Vietnamese industries and publicly traded companies to gain from increased exports, foreign direct investment (FDI), and supply chain realignments. Given higher tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US, American importers are actively seeking alternative supply sources, and Vietnam has emerged as a leading contender. In 2024, US–China trade reached approximately 582.4 billion USD, with the US running a trade deficit of 295.4 billion USD. As American companies look to mitigate rising costs, Vietnam’s cost-efficient and business-friendly environment has made it a prime destination for manufacturing shifts, an analyst team from Viet First Securities told Vietnam News. Companies previously reliant on China are increasingly establishing operations in Vietnam, driving demand for industrial real estate, manufacturing, and logistics services.

Stocks likely to benefit

Vietnam’s industrial real estate market is booming as multinational corporations seek alternative manufacturing hubs outside China. Businesses such as Sonadezi Chau Duc, Sai Gon VRG Investment Corporation, and Kinh Bac City Development Holding Corporation are set to benefit from this trend. The proposed import tariffs on all countries, including Vietnam, could weaken the competitiveness of Vietnamese goods in the US market. Additionally, stricter investigations to prevent tariff evasion will increase costs and complicate business for Vietnamese exporters. However, higher tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially up to 60%, could open opportunities for Vietnam to expand exports and capture a larger share of the US market. Markets witnessed similar developments in 2018, and export data confirms this trend, according to Truong Dac Nguyen, head of Market Strategy Analysis at Tien Phong Securities. Vietnam’s exports to the US have surged 167% to 114–117 billion per year, nearly 2.5 times pre-Trump levels. Meanwhile, China’s exports fell 9%, while Europe and North America saw a 50% rise, and South America and Mexico increased 3.6%. According to Viet First’s analyst team, the country has solidified its position as the second-largest textile and garment exporter in 2024, following China, with orders to the US rising by 11.65%. US apparel inventory has also decreased by 0.6% since early fourth quarter of 2024 due to a surge in year-end holiday shopping, indicating a return to demand for restocking. Given Vietnam’s strong presence in the US market, capturing over 20% of consumer demand, and trade disruptions, orders for Vietnamese textile products were expected to surge, the securities firm said, adding that companies like May Song Hong and TNG Investment and Trading were expected to benefit significantly.

Vietnam’s seafood industry, particularly the pangasius sector, stands to gain from the US–China tensions. The imposition of higher tariffs on Chinese seafood exports has led American importers to seek alternative sources, and Vietnam is well-positioned to fill the gap, according to analysts. Seafood exporters like Vinh Hoan Corporation, one of the country’s largest seafood exporters, and Sao Ta Foods are expected to see rising demand from US buyers. As China’s seafood exports face headwinds, Vietnamese companies could experience an upward trajectory in both volume and pricing power. Other key exported commodities, like the wood and furniture industry, are also expected to benefit. Additionally, the logistics and transportation sector stands to gain significantly from the export boom. With trade volume increasing by 165%, the demand for cargo transportation is rising in tandem, presenting substantial opportunities for businesses in this industry, such as Hai An Transport & Stevedoring and Gemadept Corporation. The shifting trade landscape has also contributed to a surge in FDI inflows into Vietnam. In January 2025 alone, total FDI registrations reached 4.33 billion USD, marking a 48.6% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. This influx of foreign investment is a strong indicator of the country’s growing appeal as a manufacturing and export hub. From a stock market perspective, increased FDI and rising exports are likely to drive improved corporate earnings, boosting investor sentiment. Nguyen Vu Thanh, director of Retail Brokerage at TPS Securities, said that market liquidity had already shown signs of strengthening. By early 2025, daily trading volume on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange had recovered to an average of 13 trillion VND (509 million USD), signalling a potential bullish phase for Vietnam’s equity market. While Vietnam stands to benefit from the trade disruptions, investors should remain cautious of potential risks, according to Thanh. The US government has previously scrutinised Vietnam’s trade surplus, raising concerns about possible tariff measures. However, given Vietnam’s strategic importance as a low-cost manufacturing hub and a key trade partner, the likelihood of severe trade restrictions remains limited. Additionally, global economic conditions, exchange rate fluctuations, and geopolitical developments could impact investor sentiment and stock performance. Investors should closely monitor policy shifts, particularly in the US, where the new administration’s stance on trade could influence future developments./.