Hanoi (VNA) - The Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM)has forecast Vietnam’s economy growth for 2018 may be at 6.88 thanks topositive socio-economic results in the first nine months of this year.

The forecast is higher than the institute’s prediction of 6.71 percent releasedthree months ago.

For the whole year, export growth is also forecast at 13.34 percent, tradesurplus at 5.1 billion USD, and average inflation at 3.97 percent, the CIEMsaid at a seminar themed "Vietnam's Economy: Deepening Reforms andEnhancing Investor Confidence", co-hosted by CIEM and theAustralian-funded programme, Australia Supports Economic Reform in Vietnam(Aus4Reform), in Hanoi on October 17.

The workshop aimed to update and evaluate the macroeconomic developments in thethird quarter and the outlook for the whole year, while giving recommendationson economic reform and macroeconomic management orientations in the last monthsof 2018 and the following years.

Nguyen Dinh Cung, head of the CIEM, said high economic growth in the firstquarters of this year will help to significantly reduce the pressure onachieving the economic growth targets in the last months of the year. Exportsand the disbursements of foreign investment increased quite stably, helping toensure the balance of the economy.

However, developments in the world market and global trade posed challenges forVietnam in its macro-economic management.

To achieve the goals for 2018, Cung emphasised that policy priority shouldcontinue to focus on improving microeconomic fundamentals and reformingeconomic institutions towards being more friendly to innovation and theenvironment, coupled with effective handling of risks in the volatileinternational economic environment.

The commitment to maintain macroeconomic stability and economic restructuringis necessary, but not enough. Vietnam needs more efforts in strengthening itsability to monitor capital and commodity flows from foreign markets intoVietnam, and a more flexible, pragmatic approach in economic its relations withkey partners, he said.

According to the CIEM’s report, the GDP growth rate reached 6.88 percent in thethird quarter and 6.98 percent in the first nine months, higher than that ofthe same period for many years. Export turnover was estimated at 65.3 billionUSD in the third quarter, up 15.1 percent, helping Vietnam achieve a tradesurplus of nearly 3 billion USD in the quarter and over 6.3 billion USD in thefirst nine months.

The increasing trend in investment continued in the third quarter, with totalsocial investment up 12.5 percent over the same period in 2017 and 21.6 percentover the second quarter. FDI disbursement continued to increase, reaching 4.9billion USD in the third quarter, up 2.1 percent over the same period last yearand 9.1 percent over the previous quarter.

Average CPI increased by 4.14 percent in Q3 and 3.57 percent in the first ninemonths. Despite concerns regarding inflation risks at certain points, the 2018inflation target (4 percent on average) is likely to be achieved. - VNA