A HSBC report released on March 19 anticipates that Vietnam'smerchandise exports will grow at around 12 percent annually between2014-2016, although last year's figure was 15.4 percent in nominal USdollar terms.
The HSBC Global Connections Report completed lastDecember covered 23 markets with a sample of 5,550 exporters, importersand traders from small and mid-market enterprises on trade volume, buyerand supplier risks, and the need for trade finance, among others.
It gauges sentiment and expectations on trade activity and business growth over the next six months.
Ofthe Vietnamese businesses surveyed, 70 percent see Asia as the mostpromising region for trade "over the next six months" (2014's H1).Europe was cited by 14 percent of respondents, reflecting the return togrowth in the Eurozone; and 10 percent selected North America.
Almost90 percent of businesses surveyed trade elsewhere within Asia. Around45 percent trade with Europe and nearly 20 percent with the Americas.
Vietnam'strading reach is becoming more international, with 10 percent ofbusinesses reporting trade with the Middle East and/or Latin Americacompared with less than 5 percent when the survey was first conducted in2009.
The currency of choice for trade is predominantly the USdollar, identified by almost 80 percent of respondents. But currencyvolatility is a concern for almost 40 percent of traders, and half ofrespondents reported that trade was negatively affected by weak productdemand.
The report says the economic growth rate is set to pickup in the medium term, helped by a strong improvement in foreign directinvestment. Lower inflation and credit constraints will support domesticactivity.
Rising incomes across emerging markets will help to drive strong trade flows from Vietnam to these markets.
Chinawill replace the US as Vietnam's largest export destination by 2030,while Malaysia will move from fifth place in 2012 to third place by2030.
The ASEAN Free Trade Area (ACFTA) will pay dividends,helping exports to Indonesia and Malaysia to grow around 15 percent ayear until 2030.
Clothing and apparel will still be Vietnam'sbiggest export sector in 2030, reflecting sustained wagecompetitiveness, but exports of ICT equipment are forecast to increaseby 10 percent a year until 2030, by which time it will have become thesecond largest export sector.
China and the Republic of Korea will still be Vietnam's largest import partners in 2030.
Importsfrom India are forecast to rise rapidly, growing almost 20 percent ayear, making India its third largest import partner by 2030.
Industrialmachinery is expected to account for more than 25 percent of the growthin goods imports, as Vietnam develops its infrastructure needs.
In 2013 almost 20 percent of Vietnam's exports were high-tech goods, up from around 5 percent ten years before.
Vietnamimports slightly more high-tech goods than it exports; some are finalconsumer products, but other high-tech imports are intermediate inputsinto the ICT production process.
Around a third of Vietnam'spopulation now lives in cities. The rapid pace of urbanisation shouldprovide an increasingly skilled workforce to help the country developits foothold in global ICT. However, this will depend on increasingspending on R&D.-VNA
The HSBC Global Connections Report completed lastDecember covered 23 markets with a sample of 5,550 exporters, importersand traders from small and mid-market enterprises on trade volume, buyerand supplier risks, and the need for trade finance, among others.
It gauges sentiment and expectations on trade activity and business growth over the next six months.
Ofthe Vietnamese businesses surveyed, 70 percent see Asia as the mostpromising region for trade "over the next six months" (2014's H1).Europe was cited by 14 percent of respondents, reflecting the return togrowth in the Eurozone; and 10 percent selected North America.
Almost90 percent of businesses surveyed trade elsewhere within Asia. Around45 percent trade with Europe and nearly 20 percent with the Americas.
Vietnam'strading reach is becoming more international, with 10 percent ofbusinesses reporting trade with the Middle East and/or Latin Americacompared with less than 5 percent when the survey was first conducted in2009.
The currency of choice for trade is predominantly the USdollar, identified by almost 80 percent of respondents. But currencyvolatility is a concern for almost 40 percent of traders, and half ofrespondents reported that trade was negatively affected by weak productdemand.
The report says the economic growth rate is set to pickup in the medium term, helped by a strong improvement in foreign directinvestment. Lower inflation and credit constraints will support domesticactivity.
Rising incomes across emerging markets will help to drive strong trade flows from Vietnam to these markets.
Chinawill replace the US as Vietnam's largest export destination by 2030,while Malaysia will move from fifth place in 2012 to third place by2030.
The ASEAN Free Trade Area (ACFTA) will pay dividends,helping exports to Indonesia and Malaysia to grow around 15 percent ayear until 2030.
Clothing and apparel will still be Vietnam'sbiggest export sector in 2030, reflecting sustained wagecompetitiveness, but exports of ICT equipment are forecast to increaseby 10 percent a year until 2030, by which time it will have become thesecond largest export sector.
China and the Republic of Korea will still be Vietnam's largest import partners in 2030.
Importsfrom India are forecast to rise rapidly, growing almost 20 percent ayear, making India its third largest import partner by 2030.
Industrialmachinery is expected to account for more than 25 percent of the growthin goods imports, as Vietnam develops its infrastructure needs.
In 2013 almost 20 percent of Vietnam's exports were high-tech goods, up from around 5 percent ten years before.
Vietnamimports slightly more high-tech goods than it exports; some are finalconsumer products, but other high-tech imports are intermediate inputsinto the ICT production process.
Around a third of Vietnam'spopulation now lives in cities. The rapid pace of urbanisation shouldprovide an increasingly skilled workforce to help the country developits foothold in global ICT. However, this will depend on increasingspending on R&D.-VNA
