In Malaysia (Photo: Xinhua)

Hanoi (VNA) – Southeast Asiancountries look poised to continue recovering this year from the economic havoccaused by COVID-19 pandemic, with brisk exports driving the rebound, reported Nikkei Asia.

The article said the Asian Development Bank (ADB)forecast a 5.1 percent rise in gross domestic product for Southeast Asiathis year. That represents an acceleration from the 3 percent estimate for2021, when the coronavirus shut down factories in Malaysia and Vietnam duringthe summer, contributing to global supply chain turmoil.

The economic recovery will likelyspur central banks, which largely kept its rates unchanged last year, to shiftto monetary tightening. Anticipated rate hikes by the US will also adddepreciation pressure on regional currencies, necessitating tightening. But thecontinued threat of the coronavirus, including the fast-spreading Omicronvariant, complicates the picture for central banks, it added.

Withthe economic picture expected to improve, central banks that cut interest ratesin 2020 amid the pandemic, then held steady in 2021, are considering changingcourse. Economists increasingly expect rate hikes to be on the table in majoreconomies during the second half of 2022.

The Singapore-basedUnited Overseas Bank predicts rate hikes in Indonesia, Malaysia, thePhilippines and Thailand this year.

However,these monetary policy scenarios and expectations of growth could be upended ifthe Omicron variant lingers. Southeast Asia has seen fewer cases than westernnations, but many countries have been forced to impose curbs such as suspendingquarantine-free travel.

The sluggishrecovery of the tourism industry hindered growth in 2021, and a delayedreopening of cross-border travel could offset some of the benefits of risingexports this year.

ܫ TheADB predicted relatively subdued inflation in Southeast Asia this year, at 2.5percent suggesting that this will not be a major factor in central bankdecisions./.