Outstanding credit forecast to grow 14.2% this year
Outstanding credit of the banking system is forecast to increase 4.4% in the first quarter and 14.2% in 2024, up 0.4 percentage point from the previous prediction of 13.8%.
Outstanding credit is forecast to increase 14.2% in 2024. (Photo: VNA)
Hanoi (VNA) – Outstanding credit of the bankingsystem is forecast to increase 4.4% in the first quarter and 14.2% in 2024, up0.4 percentage point from the previous prediction of 13.8%.
Capital mobilisation is expected to rise 2.6% in Q1 and 12.1% in the whole year, unchanged from the previously predicted figures,according to a survey of credit institutions’ business trend for Q1 conductedby the Forecasting and Statistics Department of the State Bank of Vietnam.
Meanwhile, the institutions believed the rate ofnon-performing loans among outstanding credit, which inched up in Q4 2023, willfall slightly in Q1 this year.
They forecast demand for banking services in Q1 will improveat a slower pace than in Q4 last year but bounce back more strongly during 2024. Notably,demand for loans will get much better than that for deposits or payments,different from what was seen in 2023.
The banking system’s liquidity was better than expectation inQ4 and abundant during last year compared to 2022. It is expected to stay in that state during Q1 this year and the entire 2024, they noted.
Deposit and lending interest rates are forecast tocontinue declining slightly, by an average of 0.3 - 0.4 percentage point in Q1and 0.2 percentage point in 2024.
The latest survey also showed that the bankingsystem’s business performance and pre-tax profits in last Q4 improved slightlyfrom the previous quarter but were still lower than expected in the previoussurvey.
The institutions reported that their businessperformance fell short of expectation, and lowered pre-tax profit estimationsfrom the previous survey. About 78.6% of them estimated last year’s pre-taxprofits would grow compared to 2022, 17.9% forecast contraction, and 3.6%unchanged.
They expressed their hope that the situation will improve starting from Q1 and this year, but pre-tax profits may recover at a slower pace./.
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Outstanding credit is forecast to increase 14.2% in 2024. (Photo: VNA) 
