Hanoi (VNS/VNA) - According to numerous agricultural experts, 2024 isprojected to experience severe droughts, water shortages and saltwaterintrusion due to the impact of El Nino, so it is imperative to develop along-term response plan at the earliest opportunity.

A report by the Department of Irrigation, under the Ministry of Agriculture andRural Development, reveals that current water storage levels in reservoirsacross the North, Central Highlands, and Southeast regions are at approximately40-50% of their design capacity.

In the Central region, the storage levels range from 50-70% of the designcapacity.

Several hydroelectric reservoirs are consistently replenishing waterdownstream, although at reduced levels compared to the average over many years.For instance, Ban Ve reservoir is at 38% capacity, which is 14% lower than thehistorical average, and A Vuong reservoir is at 44% capacity, reflecting an 18%decrease.

Between approximately 10,000 and 15,000ha of rice cultivation face imminentrisks of drought and water scarcity. The Irrigation Department has expressedconcerns regarding the preparation for autumn and summer rice cultivation,particularly in the Central region, which has not yet entered the rainy seasonand remains vulnerable to water shortages.

Based on extensive forecasting, water source calculations and careful waterallocation, the anticipated area at risk of water scarcity during the upcomingsummer-autumn crop is estimated to be around 10,000-15,000ha. The North Centralregion accounts for approximately 7,500-10,000ha at risk, while the SouthCentral region faces a potential water shortage on approximately 3,000-3,500ha.

During a meeting held on March 15 organised by the Ministry of Agriculture andRural Development to discuss the implementation of urgent measures in responseto the risks of heat, droughts, water shortages and saltwater intrusion, Do VanThanh, Director of the Institute of Irrigation Planning, highlighted thecyclical nature of the El Nino phenomenon, which typically occurs every twoyears and can last up to three years.

Given this pattern, it becomes crucial to estimate the cycle and establish along-term plan for direction and response. The current year has entered therainy season, implying that any drought conditions will likely be mild.However, next year is anticipated to be a year of severe droughts, particularlyaffecting the Mekong Delta, South Central Coast, and Central Highlands regions.

Thanh emphasised the need to balance and recalculate each water source withinsub-regions in the short term to identify areas susceptible to drought anddevelop corresponding plans.

In the long term, he proposed the establishment of weekly forecast bulletins toprovide regular guidance, particularly focusing on the Central region and theCentral Highlands.

Tran Dinh Hoa, Director of the Vietnam Institute of Irrigation Science, furtheremphasised the importance of developing frameworks and scenarios at multiplelevels to guide and manage responses on an annual basis.

Hoa also drew attention to the likelihood of a severe drought occurring in theMekong Delta next year, assuming it follows the expected pattern. Consequently,it becomes crucial to prepare appropriate solutions to mitigate the impact.

Additionally, he emphasised the importance of increasing the number ofmonitoring and evaluation points to enhance the accuracy of drought andsaltwater intrusion forecasts and warnings.

Response plan for 2025

In light of these circumstances, it is essential to formulate a comprehensivedrought response plan that extends until 2025, experts said.

Nguyen Nhu Cuong, Director of the Department of Crop Production, recalled thesignificant impact of the 2014 El Nino and the subsequent record drought duringthe 2015-16 winter-spring crop. These past events serve as valuable lessons,underscoring the urgency of devising effective strategies to safeguardagricultural activities in the face of impending challenges.

With the anticipated duration of the El Nino phenomenon spanning two years, itis highly likely that the 2024-25 winter-spring cropf will be severelyaffected, particularly in the Mekong Delta and other regions.

Consequently, it is of great importance to commence the development of amonthly and quarterly plan without delay.

It is also essential to conduct assessments to determine the areas mostsusceptible to droughts and evaluate their production water supply capacity.

Special attention should be given to identifying key areas that experienceddroughts during the 2015-16 period, he said.

Furthermore, it is crucial to forecast water sources from the present until2025, even extending the projections to 2026, to enable prompt implementationof appropriate solutions.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Nguyen Hoang Hiep has saidthat the ministry intends to dispatch an inspection team to key areas at risk.

He urged specialised agencies to develop tailored forecasts and solutionsspanning the period until 2025. Special emphasis should be placed on theCentral Highlands, Mekong River Delta, and Central regions, with the utmostpriority given to ensuring sufficient water supply for essential activitiessuch as daily living, industrial production, and agricultural activities./.