Can Tho (VNA) - Thisyear’s flood season in the Mekong Delta is likely to arrive late and if there isinsufficient rain in the months to come, drought and saltwater intrusion may plaguethe region again during the next dry season, experts have said.

Ky Quang Vinh, former head of the office forclimate change issues in Can Tho city, told the Vietnam News Agency that overthe last two weeks, water levels on the Mekong River have risen just a littleand been equal to those in 2019, when they hit record lows.

He noted that water levels recorded on theMekong River at Cambodia’s Stung Treng and Kratie hydrological monitoringstations will foretell the scale of the flood season in the Delta in Vietnam.

According to the Mekong River Commission, waterlevels recorded on August 17 were 5.82 metres at the Stung Treng station and14.11 metres at Kratie, only 0.5 metre and 1.59 metres higher than in 2019,respectively.

Water levels at the two Cambodian stations are stilllower and only slightly higher, respectively, than in 2016 and 2019, whensevere drought and saltwater intrusion hit the Delta.

In downstream areas of Vietnam, water levels of1.55 metres were recorded at Tan Chau station on the Tien River, a major tributaryof the Mekong River, on August 17; twice as high as those last year (0.83 metre)and roughly equivalent to levels in 2016 (1.61 metres). Levels measured at theChau Doc station on the Hau River, another tributary, were 1.57 metres, or 0.08metre higher than in 2016.

These figures indicate a lack of necessaryconditions for a flood season, which is important for local agriculture andaquaculture, Vinh said.

Nguyen Huu Thien, an expert on the Mekong Delta’secology, noted that rain in the Vientiane and Pakse regions of Laos will decidethe scale of flooding in the Delta.

Based on data recorded so far, he said that thisyear’s floods will come later than the average and are unlikely in August. Whetherthey come in September or later will depend on if the La Nina weather pattern,which triggers much rain, is in place.

Smaller floods will lead to serious water shortagesand saline encroachment in the dry season, and if water levels remain lowthrough mid-October, these two phenomena may happen in March 2021 or so incoastal localities, according to Thien.

The Mekong River basin is currently facing theEl Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather pattern, which is neither El Ninonor La Nina, he added.

The US Climate Prediction Centre has forecastthat there is a 55 percent chance of La Nina taking shape in September, Thien said,and he believes that drought and saltwater intrusion in early 2021 will not beas severe as in the 2020 dry season./.