Vietnam to have 1.5 million 'surplus' adult males by 2034: analysis
Vietnam faces a significantly imbalanced sex ratio at birth (SRB) that will mean by 2034, about 1.5 million men will not be able to marry wives, a study by the General Statistics Office and the United Nations Population Fund has found.
Students in the central province of Nghe An eagerly join a game in a ceremony in response to the International Girls’ Day October 11. (Photo: VNA)
Hanoi (VNS/VNA) 𓂃— Vietnam faces a significantly imbalanced sexratio at birth (SRB) that will mean by 2034, about 1.5 million men willnot be able to marry wives, a study by the General Statistics Office and theUnited Nations Population Fund has found.
The analysis was basedon the results of the 2019 Population and Housing Census, which were announcedon December 19, 2019. The preference forfamilies to have a son was reflected largely in prenatal sex selection asearly as the first parity (the first time a woman gives birth), with the SRBfor the first parity being 109.5 boys per 100 girls and rising for the thirdand higher parities (119.8 boys per 100 girls). For couples who have alreadyhad two daughters, the SRB for the third parity is 143.8 boys per 100 girls. If the SRB declinesrapidly and reaches a normal level by 2039, the male between the age of 15and 49 excess will still be 1.5 million men in 2034 and 1.8 million in2059. Women make up a higherproportion than men in the migrant population, but this pattern is graduallychanging towards equilibrium. The majority of migrants are young people aged20-39 years old, accounting for 61.8 percent of the total migrant population. Migrant children aremore disadvantaged than non-migrant ones in accessing lower and upper secondaryeducation. Accordingto the analysis of the 2019 Population and Housing Census, the currentfertility of Vietnam is around the replacement fertility level and willcontribute to the reduction of population growth rate in the future. The annual populationgrowth rate for the next 10 years is expected to be less than 1 percent. Giventhe current situation of low fertility, population structure and high sex ratioat birth, the future population structure will change towards aged populationand shortages of men in certain age groups. This will have a dramatic impact onthe workforce and contribute to emerging social issues.
The 2019 VietnamPopulation and Housing Census was conducted on 1 April 2019, the fifth inVietnam since the country’s reunification in 1975./.
A communication campaign was kicked off at a ceremony in northern Vinh Phuc province on October 24 to raise public awareness of imbalanced sex ratio at birth in Vietnam.
Raising public awareness of gender equality as well as improving status of women and girls are considered as keys to reduce the unbalanced sex ratio at birth, said Deputy General Director of the General Office for Population - Family Planning Nguyen Thi Ngoc Lan on October 8.
If the sex ratio at birth remains unchanged, Vietnam is likely to record an excess of 1.5 million males aged 15-49 by 2034 and 2.5 million by 2059, an in-depth study of the 2019 population and housing census reveals.
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Students in the central province of Nghe An eagerly join a game in a ceremony in response to the International Girls’ Day October 11. (Photo: VNA) 
