Hanoi (VNA) – Cambodia’s poverty rate could nearly double to 17.6 percent andunemployment could rise to 4.8 percent, according to a policy brief thatassesses the socio-economic impact of COVID-19 in Cambodia released by the UNDevelopment Programme (UNDP) on October 8.
It waslaunched through careful consultation with the Cambodian Ministry of Economyand Fiance (MEF) and other partners.
The impactassessment uses three models to measure impact and model scenarios thatcan mitigate further risks resulting from the pandemic.
Theassessment estimates that economic growth could contract from an original 6.5percent for 2020 to minus 4.1 percent. Under this scenario, the poverty rateand unemployment are forecast to surge to 17.6 percent and 4.8 percent,respectively. Cambodia’s poverty rate fell significantly to 10 percent lastyear from 53.2 percent in 2004.
A socialprotection stimulus of 3.5 percent of GDP would limit GDP contraction to minus 3.3percent and lessen the impact on unemployment and poverty to 4.4 percent and14.2 percent, respectively, the assessment says. This social protectionstimulus would prevent 570,000 people from sliding back into poverty.
“The modellingof economic and social impacts can help us better understand the impact of thisglobal pandemic on Cambodia and how we can best design stimulus packages inresponse,” said Nick Beresford, UNDP Resident Representative.
Earlier thisweek, the Cambodian government announced it will extend the COVID-19 reliefprogramme for another three months for about 600,000 poor families, equivalentto more than 3 millionpeople.
ChhourSopanha, director of Cambodia’s Social Welfare Department of the Ministry ofSocial Affairs, said the extra fund is up to 300 million USD.
The countryhas so far set out two phases for the support, with the first phase coveringJune and July, and the secondphase covering August and September./.
It waslaunched through careful consultation with the Cambodian Ministry of Economyand Fiance (MEF) and other partners.
The impactassessment uses three models to measure impact and model scenarios thatcan mitigate further risks resulting from the pandemic.
Theassessment estimates that economic growth could contract from an original 6.5percent for 2020 to minus 4.1 percent. Under this scenario, the poverty rateand unemployment are forecast to surge to 17.6 percent and 4.8 percent,respectively. Cambodia’s poverty rate fell significantly to 10 percent lastyear from 53.2 percent in 2004.
A socialprotection stimulus of 3.5 percent of GDP would limit GDP contraction to minus 3.3percent and lessen the impact on unemployment and poverty to 4.4 percent and14.2 percent, respectively, the assessment says. This social protectionstimulus would prevent 570,000 people from sliding back into poverty.
“The modellingof economic and social impacts can help us better understand the impact of thisglobal pandemic on Cambodia and how we can best design stimulus packages inresponse,” said Nick Beresford, UNDP Resident Representative.
Earlier thisweek, the Cambodian government announced it will extend the COVID-19 reliefprogramme for another three months for about 600,000 poor families, equivalentto more than 3 millionpeople.
ChhourSopanha, director of Cambodia’s Social Welfare Department of the Ministry ofSocial Affairs, said the extra fund is up to 300 million USD.
The countryhas so far set out two phases for the support, with the first phase coveringJune and July, and the secondphase covering August and September./.
VNA
